Shockers can claim MVC title with win over Redbirds

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

02/22/2012 - Normal, IL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The 19th-ranked Wichita State Shockers set their sights on the Missouri Valley Conference regular-season title, as they head to Redbird Arena to take on Illinois State in conference bout.

This will be the second encounter this season and 69th in history between Wichita State and the Redbirds. Illinois State holds a 36-32 lead in the rivalry, but the Shockers have won five straight in the series. Wichita State won the first meeting between these programs this season, 65-62 at Charles Koch Arena on Jan. 10th, as it shot 41.5 percent from the floor and held Illinois State to 39.6 percent shooting.

WSU is a win away from outright ownership of the MVC title. Head coach Gregg Marshall had done a terrific job leading the program to its first ranking since 2006-2007. The Shockers won for the 14th time in 15 tries on Saturday as they topped Davidson, 91-74 in non-conference action behind 63.6 percent shooting from the floor. Wichita State has only lost once in a true road game this season. The Shockers could not be playing any better coming into today, as they have outscored their last four opponents by an average of 19.5 ppg.

The Shockers are led by the trio of Garrett Stutz, Joe Ragland, and Toure Murry. Stutz is carrying team-high averages of 14.1 points and 7.9 rebounds per game. Ragland contributes 13.7 points and 3.3 assists per game, while Murry adds 12.1 points and 3.3 assists per contest. Ragland had an incredible outing against Davidson in Saturday's BracketBusters, as he finished with 30 points and seven rebounds. Murry added 16 points and Stutz made an impact on the defensive end with three blocked shots to help the Shockers past the Wildcats.

Illinois State snapped a two-game losing streak its last time out with a 79-75 victory over Oakland on Saturday. Tim Jankovich's team is now 17-11 overall and 8-8 in league action with the win. The Redbirds have not had very much success versus ranked foes, as they are currently riding a 23-game losing streak against top 25 teams. The last ISU win over a ranked opponent came in Dec. 29th, 1987 versus Iowa. The Redbirds came up just short on the road in their first matchup with WSU, and they have outscored their opponents by an average of 4.8 ppg.

Jackie Carmichael is the go-to-guy for the Redbirds, as he is averaging team- bests of 13.8 points and 9.3 boards per game. Tyler Brown is adding 13.1 ppg while Jon Ekey and Nic Moore both get into the mix on the offensive end as well. Carmichael was phenomenal in ISU's win over Oakland on Saturday, as he led the way with 25 points and 19 rebounds. Ekey chipped in 19 points and John Wilkins had 12 in the winning effort.

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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting

So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.

Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?

If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)

Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).

In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.

Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.

The Bubble Breakdown
CONFERENCE LOCKS SHOULD BE INS AT-LARGES TAKEN
(assuming no auto bid outlier)
ACC Betting Odds 6 0 5
Big East Betting Odds 5 0 4
Big Ten Betting Odds 2 2 3
Big 12 Betting Odds 3 0 2
Pac-10 Betting Odds 5 1 5
SEC Betting Odds 4 0 3
MVC Betting Odds 1 1 1
MWC Betting Odds 2 1 2
TOTAL 28 5 25

As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.

(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)

If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech

The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.

 

Work left to do:

Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.

Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).

Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.

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