Rounding Third: Five AL storylines to watch in spring training

Baseball Betting Lines

02/22/2012 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - There is no better phrase for a baseball fan than, "Pitchers and catchers report." Although the weather here in the Northeast has resembled spring for much of the winter, the fact that baseball is starting is a clear indication that spring is indeed right around the corner.

With that said, let's take a look at some of the bigger stories to watch in the American League over the next few weeks as teams begin to get ready for the start of the 2012 season:

ALBERT PUJOLS' ADJUSTMENT TO THE AMERICAN LEAGUE

Albert Pujols' move to Los Angeles was the biggest story this offseason and how he adjusts to a new league may be the biggest story to watch in the coming months. Getting familiarized with the AL won't be that big of a deal thanks to interleague play. But, how Pujols adjusts to a to a new manager, new clubhouse dynamic, new media market and new fan base will be interesting, especially early on when he may try to overdo it in proving he is worth the $240 million he signed for this winter. Angels Stadium is not exactly hitter-friendly, but neither was Busch Stadium, where Pujols did most of his damage. Remember Hall of Famer Frank Robinson had the best year of his career after switching leagues in 1966, winning the AL MVP that season for the Baltimore Orioles. Pujols should have similar success. The eventual breakdown may be coming, but it won't be in year one of this deal.

WILL MIGUEL CABRERA HAVE A SMOOTH TRANSITION TO THIRD BASE?

Immediately upon the Detroit Tigers signing first baseman Prince Fielder to a mega $214 million deal, questions came surrounding Miguel Cabrera and where he would play. Is he upset, will he strictly be a designated hitter, would he move back to third base? Well, Cabrera made it easy on everyone, as he stated right from the beginning that he was happy to move back to third base to accommodate Fielder. It's not as if Cabrera was Don Mattingly at first anyway. Then again, neither is Fielder. The biggest question is if his big frame could handle the day-in, day-out duties of third base, but Cabrera is in camp early and seems to be in his best shape in some time. He hasn't played third base on a regular basis since 2007 and seemed awkward during a 14-game stint there with the Tigers in 2008 when he committed five errors. He's made 48 errors in 387 games for his career at third base. That's a .951 fielding percentage and would have ranked him 14th among 20 players who played at least 100 games at third last year. It's not great, but as long as he's serviceable, that should be more than enough for a Tigers team that some think is the class of the AL.

BOBBY V BACK IN THE LEAGUE

Baseball is always better if Bobby Valentine is involved. And he's not only involved, he's been put in charge of righting a Boston Red Sox team that last year went through the worst collapse in baseball history, as they blew a nine- game wild card lead as late as Sept. 2, going just 7-20 in the final month of the season. Stories came out that the clubhouse was a mess and manager Terry Francona left, as did general manager Theo Epstein. Now here comes Valentine. The guy to fix things, or add more gasoline to the fire? He's had a knack for turning his teams against him and already had a run-in in the past with left fielder Carl Crawford. Valentine knows what he is doing, though, and this Red Sox team is probably the most talented bunch he has ever managed. Will they listen, though? Even if things don't work out, Valentine will be interesting. Maybe we'll hear more stories about him inventing the sandwich wrap.

HOW DANIEL BARD HANDLES HIS MOVE TO ROTATION

Speaking of the Red Sox, one of the more intriguing things to watch in their camp will be the transition of reliever Daniel Bard to the rotation. It was almost a fait accompli that once Jonathan Papelbon left as a free agent that Bard would assume the closer's role. The Red Sox had other ideas, however. Bard, one of the game's best set-up men the last couple of seasons, now enters a rotation that already includes Jon Lester, Josh Beckett and Clay Buchholz, but one that has a glaring hole with John Lackey sidelined for the season. In 2007, Bard's first professional season, he went 3-7 with a 7.08 ERA in 22 starts at two levels of Single A, and the Red Sox moved him to the bullpen one year later. There are some major red flags here. He's never gone over 75 innings as a reliever and some question whether or not his changeup as a third pitch is good enough to get through a big league lineup three times in a game.

THE TEXAS RANGERS

The Texas Rangers are the two-time defending AL champions, yet nobody gives them any respect. Last year, it was "they can't win without Cliff Lee." Well, they ran away with the AL West thanks to a patchwork rotation headed up by C.J. Wilson. Now, all the talk out West is on the Angels, who not only landed Pujols this offseason, but also stole Wilson from the Rangers. So a suspect rotation even with Wilson is now a huge question mark because it will now be headed up by an unproven Japanese star in Yu Darvish and their closer from last season, Neftali Feliz. While I'm more sold on Feliz working out than Bard in Boston, it's still a big gamble. The Rangers have brought in Joe Nathan to close games, but if he slips, look for Alexi Ogando to fill that role nicely. Then there is the Josh Hamilton factor. He may be out to prove something after another offseason slipup. That could be bad news for not only the AL West, but for the rest of the league. I'm not ready to bet against Ron Washington's crew just yet.

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FOOTBALL BETTING : Crabtree's base deal: six years, $32 million

Football Betting

In the wake of the news that the 49ers have signed receiver Michael Crabtree after an extended holdout, there has been not a hint of the dollars to be paid to Crabtree.

And since this means that his agent hasn't leaked the numbers, it means that his agent feels no specific motivation to do so.

Possibly because his agent isn't all that thrilled to have his name on the deal.

So the numbers will come from sources other than Crabtree's agent. And we've gotten our mitts into them.

Per a league source, Crabtree has signed a six-year, $32 million contract. (The total includes guaranteed money, base salaries, and the one-time incentive based on achieving minimum playing time.)

The deal also includes $17 million in guaranteed money.

As reported elsewhere, the deal can void to five years based on performance triggers, wiping out a final year base salary of $4 million. But they won't be easily reached.

The source tells us that, in his first four seasons (including 2009), Crabtree must either qualify for two Pro Bowls, or he must qualify for one Pro Bowl in one year and he must participate in 80 percent of the offensive snaps in a separate year in which the team makes the playoffs.

In other words, if in 2010 he qualifies for the Pro Bowl and the team makes the playoffs and he participates in 80 percent of the snaps, he'll still need to make it to the Pro Bowl or achieve the 80-percent/playoffs in another season.

Since the chances of Crabtree making the Pro Bowl or participating in 80 percent of the offensive snaps this year is roughly zero percent, he'll have three years to get it done.

And it won't be easy. Frankly, he'll be hard pressed to make it to one Pro Bowl in three years with the likes of Larry Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson, Anquan Boldin, Steve Smith, the other Steve Smith, Hakeem Nicks, DeSean Jackson, Johnny Knox, Percy Harvin, Greg Jennings, Roddy White, T.J. Houshmandzadeh in the same conference for sportsbook betting.

So, by all appearances, it's a six-year deal. And at $17 million in guaranteed money, the per-year guarantee is a tepid $2.83 million per year.

There's another problem with the deal -- it has no mid-tier incentive package. Instead, the additional $8 million that Crabtree can earn (pushing the max value to six years, $40 million) requires the kind of unrealistic, mega-star performances that no rookie is likely to ever achieve.

So while the contract paid to Packers defensive tackle B.J. Raji covers five years and pays $22.5 million, he has the ability (if he's a solid player) to make up the difference between his base deal and Crabtree's five-year, $28 million haul via the mid-tier incentive package in Raji's deal.

And unless Crabtree meets the performance thresholds necessary to void the sixth year, he'll be stuck under contract for another year at a base salary of only $4 million.

There's one other area of concern with the deal. Crabtree, per the source, received no option bonus. Instead, he has significant money tied to a fairly new device known as a "discretionary salary advance," which unlike an opition bonus is subject to forfeiture if Crabtree decides in a year or two that he wants to hold out for a better deal. (We're also told that the 49ers have included language that would make certain escalators subject to forfeiture, too.)

Meanwhile, the deal falls well short of the mark for which Crabtree and agent Eugene Parker were aiming -- the five-year, $38.25 million contract paid by the Raiders to receiver Darrius Heyward-Bey, the seventh overall pick in the draft.

Even if Crabtree successfully voids the final year, he'll make more than $2 million per year less on average than Heyward-Bey.

Thus, as we explained earlier in the day, this is a deal that Crabtree could have done in July, which would have given him a much better chance of making a contribution to the 49ers during his rookie year.

So while the final outcome can be described as win-win, the broader view suggests that it's really a lose-lose situation.

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